Beta testing betting systems in a live environment is essential, because as much as back testing creates a foundation of possibility, actual live testing puts theory in to practice.
I've been tracking a consistent trend with Auto Dutch Beta running using Expo Bot V1.
I'll be adding an update to the software to run from this edit from default with the software. It's nothing to do with the new data set, it's just an obvious trend I'm aware of from my own daily bet and trade activity.
Anybody that follows my Dutch Betting or Trading will know as a rule I steer clear of Monday's.
Sunday's in horse racing typically aren't the best, but Monday's are literally the weekend hangover.
Most 'punters' have done their money on Saturday and Sunday and gone back to work, leaving the Monday card from an investing perspective something to dodge.
Usually low quality and unpredictable, and in a lot of races your dog or cat would have a good chance of winning each race.
I operate my own betting and trading from Tuesday to Saturday, but for testing purposes with my fully automated betting bot systems such as Auto Dutch I've let them run over every available day.
Which for Auto Dutch quickly became the evening card only shortly after going live with the service.
I'm using the very best data to improve Auto Dutch Beta and In Play Beta and bring the strike rates up, and I'll reveal more about this asap, but one immediate change I wanted to check now I've a decent spread of data is whether Monday's make a difference.
This is what I found when removing Monday racing.
Betting Period 6/12/18 to 29/06/19
Run The Eve Racing
Including Monday
1867 Automated Bets Placed
Target Stake Per Bet £10.00
Profit £260.13
Run The Eve Racing
Excluding Monday
1707 Automated Bets Placed
Target Stake Per Bet £10.00
Profit £440.05
As you can see the profit significantly increased by 41% excluding Monday racing, and with less overall bets placed reducing liability.
If we take a look at the graph comparison for including and excluding Monday racing.
This graph shows that with Monday racing included after the poor run in May which took the balance back to initial investment, this method began a gradual upward profit growth.
This graph shows us that with Monday racing excluded the May losing run hit regardless, but the balance has seen a smoother more rapid increase in profits in comparison with less drama.
This is a significant difference between the two which we can see at a glance, which shows instantly for this method that running the entire evening race card, and excluding the lower class less competitive unpredictable Monday race card is the better option.
When it comes to stop at a profit we're not looking at a big difference over this period, instead things are more robust.
Stop at a Profit
Including Monday
589 Automated Bets Placed
Target Stake Per Bet £10.00
Profit £427.07
Stop at a Profit
Excluding Monday
535 Automated Bets Placed
Target Stake Per Bet £10.00
Profit £427.01
No real difference in profit growth, but with 9% less bets placed during this period giving less overall exposure.
Looking at the two graphs including and excluding Monday racing.
Looking at this graph with Monday racing included and running stop at a profit, we can see it weathered the May dip better than running the eve, and is gradually fighting back to a new profit high.
Comparing the two we can see very little difference, other than less drama with the upward climb after the May dip, and a smoother increase in balance growth which is a definite positive.
This is not science, this is horse racing and automated betting systems that use math and nothing else. No form, just odds and timing as a selection criteria, with a clever formula for staking.
The days we run the bets will have an impact, if these specific days such as Monday produce consistently low standard racing. It's an obvious fact this common thread will contribute over time to the results.
As this is a day I have avoided for years and do not include in my weekly manual betting and trading routine, I've seen enough with this data to exclude it from the Auto Dutch Beta weekly schedule.
I've a meeting tomorrow evening with the developer of Expo Bot to discuss advancing the suite further, but I'll request from default Monday racing is avoided. With an update sent to member asap this week.
We'll have an option of course in the settings to override this if you wish, as we have for all the other settings to give customization.
Moving forward with the development of Auto Dutch Beta within Expo Bot Monday racing will no longer be included. Given this is a beta product undergoing live testing with the stop at a profit setting from default, and available in early access the results will now represent this.
This is another game changer, as it brings the run the eve results not just level, but ahead of stop at a profit with this one simple change. I'm intrigued to see how this progresses over the coming months.
The new data set I'm working with for Auto Dutch and In Play Beta, I'm aiming to have enough information to begin adding additional filters in the coming months, which will definitely increase the strike and profit growth.
This simple adjustment today is a case of reacting to something I already know and apply to my own daily schedule, with have enough data to judge the impact.
If you've any questions please email me via the site contact form, and I'll get back to you asap.
Thank you
Ryan
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