Hi,
There are many ways to climb a tree, as they sometimes say instead of that horrible cat skinning based comparison.
This is very much the case with staking using Ratchet and Target Profit, either on their own or combined.
I've added extra examples of the Ratchet staking option and Target Profit to the Sure Favs Foundation service, just to demonstrate the different ways you can bet with these staking plans.
You can reduce an already low drawdown such as Sure Favs Foundation by simply opting for the Target Profit with Normal flat staking, but still return a nice profit over time with very little risk and comfortable staking within your limits.
It is possible to set up a betting system fully automated using this with Sure Favs or Bet Focus for example, and have no grey hair moments over the year, while still returning a decent percentage steady profit by anyone's standards.
The banks certainly wouldn't give you anything close with your investment, and this is why I particularly like Target Profit if used right, as you can invest a lot more with the correct strategy set up and operate within incredibly safe boundaries.
To refresh what these two stake options are for anybody who's missed my recent posts.
Target Profit is where your stake is adjusted on the bet to try and return the specified profit amount you've entered within the bot, and this can be across multiple horses or just one.
This is great if you want take a very cautious approach to your back betting, and reduces your overall liabilities. This is only available for backing strategies.
Ratchet Staking is when you set a start balance and a percentage within the bot, then whenever the balance increases to a new profit high, the following day the bot will adjust the stake to match that higher amount. It does not reduce if the balance goes down.
This works well with steady consistent strategies, nothing too risky, and definitely not fixed stake lay betting where the odds dictate the liability on the bet.
If you decide to activate the ratchet option with a low risk strategy gradually making a profit it will give it a gentle boost, if for example opting for the 1% ratchet, but obviously with the higher percentages if selected the caveat is higher drawdown. For example if you're asking it to stake larger percentages when the balance increases over time.
Ratchet staking sees a return to Exponential Bet, because when I set up the original service from launched, the BSP Racing Multiples (sadly no longer offered by Betfair as a feature), we would Ratchet stake and build the balance that way as it had a very high strike rate.
Hence the website name origin, Exponential Bet. As you can take a balance and increase it exponentially with a ratchet staking plan.
This is now available for members who wish to bet this way, and it's a definite positive to see it return the way it's been set up within Cloud Bet Bot. Giving members full automation with the strategies, but complete control over the staking options.
I do reiterate later in this post but for those who skim read, Ratchet works best with a steady safer betting option, and I would also recommend withdrawing and resetting the balance when higher target amounts are met.
I've been over both of these staking options in the most recent blogs and member news updates already, so I won't go on repeating myself too much here, and you can always read about each staking option in the Exponential Bet FAQ under Money Management: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/faq
Instead today I want to share examples of the difference combining the two stake options with Sure Favs Foundation.
Target Profit can be applied to all the backing strategies, Sure Favs, Bet Advantage and Bet Focus, which the latter in particular the reason Target Profit was specifically reborn as a concept to introduce for members.
It had been on the periphery for some time, but with other immediate jobs pending, and also looking for the right services to get the most from it things were put on ice until now.
Ratchet can be applied to all Exponential Bet automated strategies, backing and lay, but as stated I'd only suggest using it for fixed liability laying if that's your plan.
If betting using Target Profit and/or Ratchet sparks your interest, then I'd definitely recommend looking at the Bet Focus page for more examples of this in operation.
Bet Focus: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/bet-focus
Below I demonstrate three variations using this with Sure Favs Foundation, and I will keep these updated on the Sure Favs service over time via results page here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/sure-favs
Please bear in mind if you're thinking of subscribing to more than one service and running them concurrently, the One Subscription plan is always the most value for money. You can find the subscription options here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/betting-system-sign-up
Betting Examples Applying Target Profit & Ratchet
Date Range: 1.6.20 to 15.11.20
Sure Favs Foundation Target Profit Selected
Considering this is betting for a target of 1 point per bet on each horse, the profit over approximately five months at 47.69 is excellent, especially considering the low drawdown at 9.82.
The original Sure Favs Foundation with normal staking of 1 point per bet returned 83.71 points over the same date range, as shown below.
Sure Favs Straight BSP
However, the drawdown at 24.03 for Straight BSP is more than twice the amount with Target Profit selected.
The same amount of bets, wins and losses, strike rate etc, but a smoother upward curve on the graph and not too far behind on points gained considering we're using a Target Profit. A fraction of a point per bet typically as the average odds are 3.73.
This all comes down to your own comfort levels of how you want to bet, and now you have more options to reduce your risk following these automated strategies.
Looking at the same set up with Target Profit selected, but also Ratchet staking included below.
Sure Favs Target Profit & 1% Ratchet
With 1% Ratchet as you can see the drawdown is 50% less than straight betting, ie Exchange or BSP.
We do however have less race bets than Straight BSP or just Target Profit on its own, as the 5 point stop down has been reached more often as a consequence of the Ratchet being selected, increasing stakes gradually over time.
70.17 points with Target Profit and Ratchet at 1%, compared to 83.71 flat staking BSP odds is very close, and with half the drawdown makes this quite appealing. Although this can go up a lot faster considering you're stakes are increasing when Ratcheting.
The Sure Favs service overall offers a low drawdown anyway, with the Main option operating at 8.17 up to now, and High at 19.11 points.
This combination above could be applied to either option for Sure Favs, adding Target Profit instead of Straight, and Ratchet using sensible percentages.
Sure Favs Foundation with this combination is my favourite of the three though, as it has more bets over a betting week, and this can peak the overall betting balance a lot more frequent than the other two.
It is ultimately your choice what option you decide to select, but as you can see they do offer a different dynamic to the service.
In contrast, let's explore another way of doing it.
Sure Favs Foundation Straight BSP with 1% Ratchet selected
The first thing that draws the eye is the much higher points return at 195.49 which is very good, but also look at the drawdown at 44.57, which you would need to be set up to deal with and take into account.
When the service hits a losing bet period after a decent win run the losses will be higher, as with a Ratchet as explained the stake will of course be a percentage of the highest point achieved.
The other Target Profit based options above, or flat staking Straight BSP could set up and begin with a 100 points and use 1 point per bet.
Alternatively with Target Profit 1 percent per bet if opting for Ratchet a 100 points would be doable, but heed my advice below regarding cashing out and rebooting.
That would be a comfortable start up with 100 points, giving whatever value per point relevant to your bank, and as you can see from the historical results you've a solid chance of making a decent profit over time.
With the last option using Straight BSP and 1% Ratchet you could expect more ups and downs over time, and as the balance increases so does the losing amount size, as with any it would with any decision to operate a Ratchet stake, but going 1% per bet straight betting on the increase I feel would require at least 300 points start up investment if choosing this option.
I'd also be looking to cash out and reset from time to time with a Ratchet stake plan.
As it can quickly return a good profit faster than any other option so it's very useful, but your biggest win could be your biggest loss, and looking at the last example above at this point I'd be resetting my balance, Clearing Bets, and starting again.
If you've returned 200 points in less than six months, why risk that amount being lost on a handful of losing bets if it started increasing even higher, when instead you could reinvest and aim for another 200 in six months, and so on.
However, you decide how to allot your points and the amount of money you have in your bet bank over the years will dictate this, but being sensible with the percentage gains over time and having cash out periods when using Ratchet is something I'd advise, the choice is yours obviously.
To summarise, you have Target Profit just for back betting strategies, which as the name suggest aims for a target amount that you set in the staking for these strategies.
Additionally, the Ratchet option can also be deployed, but please use with caution and be wise with your decisions, and I'd never advise using it with Fixed Stake Lay Betting.
Fixed Liability you're fine, and as long as the strategy is solid while operating it as advised above, avoiding the Fixed Stake option as it's too risky in my opinion.
Ratchet and Target Profit together with backing work very well with the right strategies, and so far I've found Sure Favs and Bet Focus to be the best options.
Target Profit I think over the longer term if putting in large sums and you're happy with the smaller percentages would do well with Bet Advantage.
I'll provide some data on this once we've more racing under our belts, as you would literally be looking for small margins but with minimal risk.
The lower liability option will suit that strategy given it's got a low strike rate, and when it hits some solid form as it inevitably it will, the set target amounts and reduced exposure on the bets will compliment nicely.
I feel like I've missed something in this blog regarding Ratcheting and Target Profit, you know when you just have that feeling, hmm, so I'll post another or include it in a news post when it comes back to me, but for now I'll leave it here as dinners ready.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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