This week I'll publish a series of posts each day covering:
Football Trading - Identifying Profitable Trades
Remote Dutch Betting
Unnamed JV High Yielding System
Subscriptions Update, Limiting Memberships, & My Service Schedule
Pre Race Trading Next Update With Hedger Pro
Focus Ratings & Hedger Pro Integration
In Play, Auto Dutch, Auto Football
Today's blog is about Football Trading, and identifying profitable pre match trades.
Before I begin, I was interviewed recently for an online magazine called On Course Profits, which you can read here: Q&A With Ryan Phillips
Some of the information is now outdated with the integration of all automated services being moved to the cloud, but it was an enjoyable chat with this publication I thought some of you may be interested in.
Additionally, a member pointed out that I've been entered in to the Lay Back and Get Rich awards, as they had kindly voted for Exponential Bet as the Best Betting Product.
If you'd like to vote for Exponential Bet there you can do so via this link: LBAGR 2019 Betting Oscars Cast Your Votes
Football Trading
If you're looking for a way to trade the football markets, then you may already know from my previous posts that I advocate using the Trade On Sports platform, which you can sign up using my discounted links here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/trade-on-sports
Due to the fact Cloud Bet Bot running Remote Dutch Betting this month has taken up a huge chunk of my time, and with Betfair dropping some unexpected work on my lap by decommissioning BSP Multiples, I'm late getting started this new football season using Trade On Sports APP, but I will catch up rapidly, and when I do you'll be the first to know of my progress, results, what I've learned, and how I've been using this to make profitable trades.
With the right amount of investment to begin with using the Trade On Sports platform, you can make a decent annual income.
I'm predicting about £20k profit pa in my bank, by the time all the main leagues and European matches have been played over this new period. The markets are highly liquid, and the application itself is consistently accurate, so this is a confident estimate.
You can read more on my previous Trade On Sports posts via the blog, but my most recent is here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/football-trading-week-one
Had I not been spread thinly recently I'd have been up and running with this by now, showing my P&L etc, but my schedule has dictated come October I'll have the time each day to dedicate to football trading.
In the meantime I'll do my best to showcase the platform, and what it's capable of. I'd advise you snap up the discount I have available via the link above, signing up for the Gold Membership, as this gives all the features I will be demonstrating today, and in future posts.
If you can get up to speed by the time I start publishing my profits and daily trades, what I'll be showing you will logically make a lot more sense.
Another point to note here is, it's actually very interesting using the platform, it's a laborious task, and the team due give exceptional support.
Yes it requires a bit of time, some learning, availability to place the trades, monitor and green up of course, but if you have the time and inclination you cannot beat this as football trading tool.
I mentioned in a previous post that I'd publish a video showing how to identify a potential pre match trade using the platform, but I've quite literally not had the time to edit this, but I can share the screen capture below giving a clear example of what's involved in identifying and making a successful trade.
Regular video content will become the norm as my days level out, and I'm making more trades. I'll then publish the bulk of the raw content.
Once I'm more established I'll set up live trading using platforms like Zoom.
For now let me walk you the basics of making a pre match trade, without covering every last detail on the screen shots below I can show you the important triggers to look react to.
Identifying Pre Match Trades - What to Avoid & What to Trade
The image above may initially look daunting, but this is just the days football on the 17th August around 10.30am when I assessed the market, then placing the trade I'll walk you through below.
Focus on the volume column for now near the centre of the screen at the top under match odds.
I click this to sort the games into order of betting volumes, and I'm only interested in matches with £50k upwards, which gives me nine to look at.
You can see the match odds for each game here, and to the right of it the pinnacle odds.
If you can see a disparity between the actual odds and pinnacle prices, then it's worth further investigation.
We can see the first match between Arsenal and Burnley has some difference in the odds, so I click the history to explore the betting over time for this match, ideally looking for an opportunity to trade.
Immediately I'm put off when the screen above opens, as you can see the most recent prices on the left are blue mixed with pink for Arsenal, which suggests the run is now over.
What I mean is, look to the right and see the block of four blue boxes on the Arsenal prices which started around 1am, so if I'd been up at that time I could have traded Arsenal for a few ticks profit (1.37 to 1.34), then when I noticed the pink boxes appearing closed out the trade.
Its a patience game, and you need to be there at the right time.
Obviously we're not all going to be up at 1am, but that's okay because trading opportunities continue to present themselves throughout the day, which I'll show you below.
With nothing else looking appealing here, as we're looking for dark green and blue sections in solid blocks, and also nothing at high odds, I move on to the next game.
In this match between Southampton and Liverpool the pinnacle price looked appealing from the main page, but what we have is pink and blue for Liverpool with a line of red, and as much as the price may come in for Liverpool the APP is not indicating this.
You can see from the early hours of the morning the price has remained around 1.50. Liverpool have 80.91% of the book, but we don't know what percentage of this money is backing or laying.
Nothing else appeals on the other markets in this game, and we're only looking for the odds on trades as well, as anything at a high price can put you at risk of being on the wrong end of a drift, and at big prices the loss can be a lot more than when trading odds on prices.
I continued to look through the games finding matches to avoid, but let's look at one more, as it's just as important knowing what not to trade, as it is knowing what an ideal opportunity looks like.
Another match that from the main screen looked possible was the Man City v Spurs game, but again you can see a lot of pink mixed in with blue for City, and the Spurs price is immediately too high to consider anyway.
You can also see the City price has 76.97% of the book, but again we don't know if this is back or lay money
From the early hours the price has been fluctuating between 1.41 to 1.44 up and down, and there is no firm indication here that this price is going to move in strongly, which in this example is what I'm looking to show you.
The example above is the Brighton v West Ham match, and this shows exactly what we're looking for with a trading opportunity pre match.
Looking at the Brighton row we see solid blocks of green and blue from 00.30 to 10.00, and the pinnacle price is predicted to move to 2.51 from where it is now at 2.60, giving us 9 tiks potential movement, or more.
As mentioned above, this is a game of patience, and when the team news comes in this may positively or negatively affect a price, so you're waiting for that pink to start appearing as a trigger to close out your trade.
In this instance I just wanted to demonstrate the power of this APP and place the trade to automate within the triggered parameters, ie matched 2.60, and green up at 2.51.
If I'd had time to sit and monitor the trade waiting for the blocks to change when the price moved in beyond the 2.51, I'd have made a lot more profit.
I traded just £200 on this match, which bear in mind I'm not actually risking this amount as I have a stop loss set for a ten tik drift to hedge. I'm actually only risking just under a tenner.
A £200 trade on football at this time in the morning (10.30) is possible given the high liquidity of these markets, and you can see from the money available on the prices, I could have put a lot more in, but I'm using 2% of my overall investment with each of these pre match trades.
It's important you decide on a percentage of your bank, and stick to it. Be sensible, and don't go all in with your balance risking too much, as you will not make good decisions, or you could be caught out with a Betfair glitch, which happen from time to time.
Anyway, lecture over, just always like to air on the side of caution, and use a percentage of balance staking approach.
When I returned to check on the match, as I was spinning a lot of plates this day with my other services, but around midday you can see the price plummeted below the 2.51 to 2.38. My automated trade was sat waiting to be matched at 2.51 and was easily traded, giving me a green hedged profit of £6.35.
If I'd have been monitoring this trade, which I'm working towards having the time available to do this a lot more up to and beyond October this year, I'd have been able to react when the price began to bottom, with the pink showing on the APP for this game in blocks, and then trade out for a larger profit.
The objective of this example is to demonstrate how you can quickly use this APP on a daily basis to identify profitable trades, avoid the matches that don't have all the right boxes ticked, and trade a game for a profit.
The discipline to not get involved with everything is vital, as you are waiting for the right opportunities.
Obviously I automated this trade given I was doing a ton of different things at once, but if you're dedicated to monitoring the markets instead you will make a lot more, which as mentioned is what I'm working towards, and what I'll start demonstrating in these blog posts as they progress.
You can also see the available money in the market hours before the match was due to commence, and the traded volume, meaning there is plenty of opportunity for everyone to profit here if following the right signals using the Trade On Sports APP.
This demonstration hasn't covered every detail of the APP, far from it, there is so much more to know and information that I'll pick up which will enhance my trading ability over time.
I really just wanted to share what I'd learned so far to make successful pre match trades using the simplest triggers.
For this information to be available you need the Gold Membership, which you can receive a discount on your first month exclusively via the sign up options from this page: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/trade-on-sports
If you've any questions please let me know, and I'll get back to you asap.
Thanks
Ryan
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