I've been asked numerous times to show a longer spread of results for Place Lay Multi running the filter currently in operation, so in today's blog post I'm doing exactly that.
If you are interested in joining Place Lay Multi I have opened up the opportunity to join via the Place Lay Multi page, which you can find here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/place-betting
There are six month and annual options available at the moment, and these will again shortly be restricted to invite only, as I do not want too many members affecting liquidity.
We are operating within our membership levels at present, and with enough headroom to allow just a handful of new members, so if you are interested in joining now is the time as spaces will close soon.
The maximum bet size for everyone betting fixed stake (MTP) is set to £50 for Place Lay Multi, to protect the integrity and longevity of this Betfair place betting strategy.
Fixed liability BSP betting I allow higher, so if this is your plan please get in touch with me and I will increase your stake limit.
If you are already set up and in operation with this bet type and stake size, then I have already allowed for this after assessing your betting style, and no need to get in touch to set this for you.
Now lets make a start looking at the current Place Lay Multi filters in operation using Fixed Stake (MTP), but across a much longer timeline than it has been live betting.
The results below show from the 1st December 2020 to yesterday the 23rd March 2024 using the current Place Lay Multi filter settings.
These results demonstrate betting with 1 point per bet, and factor in starting with a 200 point bet investment for each twelve month period.
Which is important to note, as you can see from the highest drawdown point over approx. 40 months betting, the 200 point investment was not needed in its entirety.
Examining the graph above there have been many periods lasting months in a row where the balance has not grown, or been in a state of decline before recovering with a profit.
This is why budgeting correctly to succeed is absolutely vital. Having the correct points allocation and mindset to see past the dry periods, to reach the high growth periods.
According to the results shown here today, if you had been matched at exactly the same odds over this exact timeline, the worst possible outcome would have been if you joined at the moment the balance took a nosedive to the maximum of -66.17 points.
If you had budgeted correctly and invested money you could afford to absorb this loss, i.e. with an initial 200 point investment, that would have dented your start balance by -33%.
Which if left to run its course would have been recovered with a significant profit over 200 points from the lowest dip. More than doubling your overall initial investment.
The results above do also show the average points per annum balance growth is +222.17, but let's take a look at each twelve month period. From when this data is extracted, up to where we are today.
1/12/20 to 30/11/21
+292.08 points profit, with -56.98 points drawdown
Starting from month one you can see from the graph and stats above, the strategy using the current filters operates very well the investment amount of 200 points, not exceeding -56.98 drawdown in fact.
There are a few stake periods of no growth between January to March, and from around April to mid May. Then again from June to August, and not much growth from late August to the end of November. With these periods carrying some steep drop offs, and general up and down before recovering with profit growth to push the recorded balance higher.
We have four notable high growth periods that propel the balance up to the finishing twelve month point total of +292.08. Absorbing the losing and no growth periods, and creating a very appealing upward trend.
1/12/21 to 30/11/22
146.48 points profit, with -60.19 points drawdown
The following twelve month period plays out very differently, and shows exactly what is required to reap the long term benefit of good planning and the correct attitude to win.
Having a gradual four month drop off and losing period from January to April, before picking up winning traction and elevating the balance to +146.48 points profit.
This occurred with a series of growth periods and dips, a lot of up and down over the year betting, with some months dropping points only to recover to a break even, before pushing the balance higher.
This is what a year automated betting can look like, but again it shows that it works with its 200 point investment comfortably, dropping to a -60.19 point drawdown, and returning a very decent annual points profit.
The risk reward so far over this first 24 month period is so far excellent, with +438.56 points profit, and a drawdown at circa -60 points.
1/12/22 to 30/11/23
164.18 points profit, with -65.73 points drawdown
The third twelve month period to look at shows what can best be described as growth up to mid April, with approx. five months of betting to follow just to break even back to the point we were mid April.
However, what happened after this demonstrates the principles of betting I believe in and promote at Exponential Bet.
Solid planning and budgeting, with the correct attitude to let whatever amount you put in ride. As that is what it is there for, to absorb losses, and ensure we are correctly positioned to reap the rewards when the strategies hit these winning runs, which we see time and time again within these betting patterns.
The year could be considered the toughest of all three so far to endure, if you look at it from a continual daily and weekly assessment view point, but in reality looking at the end of year performance, it actually did better than the previous year, with not just a higher points total at +164.18, but also with a better ROI.
The drawdown was a little higher to achieve the end results, but only marginally at -65.73.
The overall drawdown still at circa -60 points, but with a total points after 36 months betting at +602.74.
1/12/23 to 23/3/24
139.10 points profit, with -17 points drawdown
The result data above tells the story of almost four months betting up to the present day, and we can see the strong upward curve from the previous graph continuing up to January, but then after this taking a less vertical upward trend to where we are today.
It is obviously too early to assess the drawdown at -17 points, and the points recorded so far at +139.10 is looking strong, but at just four months in this will still need to be tested I would guess. I could be wrong, and this may be the start point of a long prosperous winning period.
That is why I budget with 200 points investment each year with this strategy, and expect an average point profit in the region of +222, which is based on a spread of ten years betting according to our calculation.
You can see from the results above you're not going to get that amount year on year, and it is an average, but overall the expected drawdown is circa -60 points, and the strategy has shown consistently to operate around this level, while also demonstrating it can absorb losing periods to return annual profits.
All running on auto pilot betting on our members behalf, with no input required, just a solid and sensible starting plan to carry the betting over each twelve month period.
The individual twelve month and four month totals for the points above are out by +1.25 points, compared the entire spread shown at the start, which is just down to the way the Researcher tool generates the entire spread, compared to how I sectioned each time period. Just thought I'd mention this, even though it is not important information compared to the point of this blog post, I know someone will add it up and email me. :-)
Fixed stake is overall the most impressive bet type in comparison to fixed liability, which shows lesser returns, but it does so with lower drawdown, and with the option of BSP included that I allow up to £250 stake per bet with that option.
This opens up the scope for potential higher stake values, and could mean more profit overall compared to the maximum £50 stake for exchange straight, if you're betting to the maximum allowed fixed stake BSP level, but BSP is definitely not as progressive with its performance following the current Place Lay Multi filters, which you can see in the 40 months overview below.
Let's take a look at Place Lay Multi running using fixed liability, where the BSP and MTP results both apply. The same stake set up using a value of 1 point per bet.
1st December 2020 to 23rd March 2024.
We have roughly the same line of growth over time as fixed stake, shown in the graph at the start of this post, and with the same periods of up and down over time, but this fixed liability approach has less profit given the bet type is less aggressive.
The overall drawdown for MTP is less at -36.48 in comparison to exchange straight at -66.17 for the exact same period. Almost half the risk, but with 38% of the profit recorded at MTP when running fixed liability over exchange straight.
When looking at BSP it is even less than this, and with a drawdown closer to exchange straight.
Why pick fixed liability then, or BSP, that's the question most of you ask yourselves, and why the vast majority of bettors with Place Lay Multi use exchange straight.
However, if you're someone betting with BSP at maximum stake, and using the data above for ease of explanation, over the 40 betting months with these filters the profit would be £39,532.50, and allowing for Betfair downtime or other acts of god, would be that amount, or thereabouts.
Not bad at all for a growing investment amount, or if being withdrawn each year to enjoy the profit.
MTP betting there will always be variance compared to BSP, given each member will achieve different odds.
The bets are not put on in any preference for members, they are all sent to market randomly.
It is down to how quick Betfair processes your bet as to where you fit in the queue to be matched, among other factors I could elaborate on, but all of which sit out of our control.
We process your bets within milliseconds of establishing what bets qualify, and they are fired to market faster than you could do it manually, but with BSP the bets will always go on at the starting price, be matched at your stake that sits within Betfair's max odds size, and just sit waiting for the race to commence.
This is why BSP appeals to some members who bet at the levels required to make it worthwhile. £250 is higher than most would like to bet, and this more than clears membership fees with a very good profit. It could be higher, and it will be with Portfolio Bet, given that new service will operate solely in the win market.
If you were betting with £50 at BSP for Place Lay Multi over the period above, that's still £7906.50, so very much worthwhile as a growing investment amount.
BSP with fixed stake on the Betfair exchange is not permitted by Betfair. They do permit betting BSP if you use a fixed liability bet type.
To Summarize
Whether you bet BSP or MTP, and whatever bet type you select, fixed stake or fixed liability, Place Lay Multi has enough data and live betting behind it to demonstrate it is an automated betting strategy with exceptional long term potential.
Like any betting strategy it will not win all the time, none of them do, and some periods will be significantly better than others.
The stats and graphical data shown here today show this is a long term betting strategy, and set up as such, not for quick instant gains, and not pretending to be a get rich quick system. It is quite openly showing its potential as a bet investment strategy.
With advised yearly points allocations, and clear demonstrations of how twelve month betting periods can look.
The year by year analysis should demonstrate what is required to negotiate the betting, and have enough in the financial tank to comfortably hit the expected average annual returns, or at worst cover the betting during losing or no growth periods, until we hit the reported high growth winning periods.
Allow for the down periods, or extended months of no growth, to be there well positioned to capitalize on the winning high growth periods. Hopefully today's breakdown allows you to to examine, and see for yourself clear examples of each type of scenario that can occur with this betting strategy over a long timeline.
There is no set order to it, but the pattern is clearly shown, and with a good level of rigidity when it comes to the level of investment to run this strategy within a high comfort zone of 200 points, or whether you want to work with less security, if you are comfortable with that, the long term growth is very much there. The decision is yours with staking, my points guidance is exactly that, advice, but over each period examined here today we are working to the expected drawdown level regardless how you set up.
Which for me is now the first metric I look at most when designing an automated strategy, as this has to be manageable in order to operate a sensible staking plan that makes it profitable enough, and worthwhile for you to want to put your money into.
I hope today's analysis has gone some way to give you a much clearer view of Place Lay Multi, and how the current setting is projected to operate over a long period of time, 40 months in this example.
Portfolio Bet is live and in operation soon, and one of the strategies included with that derives from Place Lay Multi, but with the selections made in the place market, and bets placed in the win market where the liquidity is significantly higher.
Although the membership will be limited to preserve liquidity, it will allow for more numbers than Place Lay Multi given it is win market betting only.
If you want to register for an invitation to join Portfolio Bet, you can do so via this link: https://www.portfoliobet.co.uk/
Click on the Notify Me button and enter your email address. You will then be added to the invite list, and contacted next week with the opportunity to join.
I'll post the Part 3 Portfolio Bet blog update tomorrow evening.
Thanks for reading today. Any questions please let me know.
Best Regards
Ryan
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