Today's blog post contains an apology for the March 2023 Automated Strategy update. With an explanation why we will all see this absorbed, showing a steady profit increase across all the automated services over the coming six month period.
The information in todays blog only applies to the Automated Strategies, and has nothing to do with In Play Bet Club.
Please do not be alarmed by my brutal honesty, it may seem unusual in this day and age to read that someone is taking accountability for their actions, but I am comfortable putting my hands in the air when I am in the wrong.
I know from past experience whenever I have been upfront about a problem, I have received emails showing concern for me personally.
This is a good thing of course, and appreciated in certain circumstances when I have been ill or lost a loved one. I am grateful for all my members, and I have some truly kind hearted people who follow my services and progress.
Today however is all about publicly accepting an error, as my mindset is that in order to succeed there will be some failed attempts along the way. Ask anyone who got there on their own steam, they will tell you that's a fact.
If I was not to acknowledge mistakes I'd be lying to myself, and that mindset in my opinion is a pointless exercise.
In order to actually succeed in the real world, and not in a mind that is deluded, facing our failures head on and realizing why they happened, then doing something about these errors of judgement to learn from it, is just part of a natural process to improve and become better, do better, achieve more, and be a real person.
Today's post is that exact process, with me acknowledging a failure, as I should in the public eye given the nature of my work, and presenting my solution to the issue.
Without further ado and introduction, let me begin.
I've just watched and let the previous month of betting run its course for the automated services, before introducing data that will positively boost and transform the automated strategies. I wanted to start this at the beginning of a new month.
Before I get to this however, I have to address an elephant in the room.
Earlier this year I predicted a profit that would boost and transform the automated strategies, and it didn't deliver, it did the opposite. Which I will explain why.
The projection was based on an algorithm discovered within Researcher, the tool used to place the bets for services at Exponential Bet.
The algorithm data was 100% correct and Researcher did it's job flawlessly, but it came at a cost I had not anticipated. This is my mistake, and I have learned from it.
At the time I was very excited to introduce the update, as I'd personally tested it for a good length of time, with the numbers reported matching my own results.
It was hitting form, and returning profits like I had never seen before, and I wanted to share this with you as soon as I could.
From the moment I activated this update for the entire membership, the profit began falling, and it never picked up.
I left it to run, because as usual sods law usually applies when launching something new, but there was something genuinely wrong with what had translated from live bet testing, to actual betting for the members.
I quickly discovered the time difference factor that was introduced to the selection process was the problem.
It does work as a profitable strategy if not affected by huge liquidity hits, but not for more than a handful of people.
The liquidity is always a factor with any shared betting strategy, but for this update in particular it was a lot more vital than any other.
Incorporating the time of selection to time of bet as a key metric, it just did not work for a group. Individually yes, but for its intended purpose, no.
If it was just me it would have continued to operate to the recorded profit, but that wasn't the point of introducing it.
This was supposed to return the same result for everyone, and it didn't, which for that I am genuinely sorry.
I've been in turmoil about this since it was introduced, and up until I found the solution, which has been rolled out from today the 1st August 2023, I have been unable to really settle and let the services do what they are supposed to do, make money using automation.
With any new concept there is a period of putting it out there to test the theory, to iron out the creases. You can live test till the cows come home, but there has to be a point when you go live properly.
In this instance with the March update the theory is correct to this day, but the issues could not be corrected. The time gap that generates the profit, this is something the UK exchange cannot accommodate for a large group of people betting on the same selection at the same time.
Betting at a specific period close to when a race jumps is absolutely fine when the decision and bet is based at that moment. This is why the majority of our services deliver close to published MTP odds for everyone, and of course identical at BSP.
Having the split between selection and bet only works when doing it manually or running automated for a very small number of people. Also, BSP was eliminated as an option with the March update, so it was all liquidity based.
I could continue to use it myself, or pass on the concept within a do it yourself manual betting guide at some stage in the future, but as an automated selection method for a large membership it just will not work.
It causes too much variance with what is possible, and what cannot be achieved by all members.
This area of betting where the selections are made and bets placed I'd observed and seen money available on the exchange ladder, but when it came to covering membership bets, the weight of money movement was too great to leave any value either backing or laying, the prices just evaporated.
This means the results recorded and shown initially by my own betting without the liquidity issue had value, but with everyone else betting, and especially as it was primarily MTP based, the prices collapsed.
I do not think I could be more honest with my breakdown of this particular failure, and as stated above, I am very sorry for this oversight with the price movement.
There were a few voices that stated I should consider liquidity more, but from everything I had seen I'd weighed it up, and the numbers looked right. Which they were, but that liquidity swing did not become visible until everyone got involved.
I should have tested for longer with a wider group of members. I was too eager to get it to you, as my own results were fabulous using it, and as the time gap was a brand new factor that I'd never introduced to my membership, without having it tested across a wider group I would not have been able to predict it's shortcomings.
I have attempted to mitigate this with setting changes since this version update, and for some of the strategies been able to level out and show a profit. You can see this from the monthly result updates. Some of the strategies have been doing okay, whereas others that had previous robust form have taken a dive.
I do not run this site to just mitigate damage limitations and drag betting results across the line.
Fortunately, no wheels have fallen off any wagons, and no services that have dropped points have breached their recommended points start up balances. If followed using the recommended one point per bet and advised approach to points investment. Albeit, all strategies come with a caveat that future investment to continue may be required.
However, the time and effort you spend following my services and putting you money in to pay for a membership, and the funds you invest to bet with all have to be justified.
This is always at the forefront of my mind when running this site and its services.
The update I had been working on that came in to effect in March, this was supposed to provide a sharp increase in profit, and as stated above it would have done so had it just been betting for a small group.
This is not what happened for everyone, and I have been frustrated by it working to rectify the problem since.
I'm not the sort of person who just gives up, and had to find a solution to not only get us back on track, but deliver a run of results across a timeline at circa six months to have recovered any losses, and put us back to a decent profit with a confident run of form.
That is a sensible timeframe and very doable. For anyone joining now, you come in at just the right time.
I have been able to purchase data that is exclusive to Exponential Bet, and provides an insight in to the racing no other service provider has access.
This is available to me with a five year license, and I will utilize it across all services to add a unique insight in to the betting processes.
I've already incorporated this into the analysis format, which has enabled me to see beyond what I have been able to assess previously.
The short explanation of this, all the strategies from today, the 1st August 2023, will now operate using the same core selection criteria, ie Sure Favs favourite backing, Racing Lays lay betting a single horse in the win market, Bet Focus higher priced horses to back for bigger returns, and the Place Betting strategies all the same target area of the field, but with a deep level of data applied behind the decision making, and of course no time gap filter.
Instead of the bet timing issue we had in March, or the mitigated adjustments since then in an attempt to keep things even or above, the consistency you will now experience will not only impress you, but it will begin repairing any impact the March update had on your balance, and restore your confidence, as the line of growth you will see start to move as we expected back in March.
There is a reason I have paid the money I have for this data, and it's because in it's simplest terms this will help make us all a lot of money over the coming years.
That is the most basic explanation I can give. It adds so much to the selection process, and enables me to see further in to each race.
Not looking back trying to fit results into winning strategies, this data is based on actual forward planning progression within racing.
Taking pre race and in play data to look at how each individual race should shape up, and using that to apply our selection methods for the core concepts with these strategies.
When the right bets arise, we then have much more of an edge than ever before to find the right bets, and win a lot more than we lose.
Whether that be the required strike rate at average odds, the right prices over time to swell the balance, or lay enough horses in the right scenarios to be generating the projected profits across the months.
What we don't want is the disparity between the theory and reality, that gap is now gone, and all these bets are selected and placed just moments before a race commences.
The trend analysis I wrote about previously, that has also gone, it hasn't returned with this data. This data instead brings new parameters to the table, and these are not based on trends, but instead facts that affect choices race by race.
You may think this is a risky decision to post such an honest blog, but I know from the bulk of the emails I receive, I am dealing with intelligent people.
I know you want to make money, and have an investing mindset, so I believe you will understand, and ideally find it refreshing to see someone taking ownership for a bad decision, while presenting a solution.
If this isn't your view, and you are annoyed with me for not getting it right 100% of the time, then all I can say is that I am sorry for the mistakes I have made here, and that I have learned from it so it will never happen again. That is all I can do, and offer the solution I have put in place.
For those in the know, this is the exact moment to get your staking levels set up correctly for the services you operate, and do not touch it for the coming six months.
Let it go, and you will see your balance increase over this time for most, if not all, of the automated strategies. Overall, I can see a combined points profit total circa 500 points. Betting one point per bet, and with the BSP and MTP options being closely matched.
This is a realistic estimate, and based on winning and losing periods all managed within safe limits of initial betting investments.
Like every betting strategy we won't win every month for every option, that is a promise nobody can keep, but you will definitely see the positive difference the data introduction makes with the stability of the betting, and the balance growth itself will be judged officially over a six, then twelve month period.
I want us all to be withdrawing profits each year, or reshuffling then re investing to keep building the balance.
I'm not putting graphs and stats showing how the strategies will operate using the new data in this blog today, as instead I'll let them run under the new settings, and then update the blog posts with actual live betting data.
It is the time to get behind these strategies. The projected profit is derived from bets that can be placed for everyone, not a small group, and the results shown for the strategies will reflect or be close to your own, without that variance I cover above.
You may decide to watch and see how things go, which is absolutely fine of course, but with that comes the fear of missing the opportunity to hit a high profit growth period, and benefit from this financially.
I project that the coming six months overall for the automated services will be the most profitable I have seen on record since I began running them, if not, it will be very close, but still a very impressive period of growth not to be missed.
If you're not already a member and wish to sign up, you can join here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/betting-system-sign-up
Now I can safely say I am not frustrated by the March update, and I am happy to let these selections now run for the duration across the betting timeline to build my Betfair account balance.
If you have a genuine enquiry, please drop me an email and I will do my best to come back to you as soon as possible.
Thanks for reading.
Ryan
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