I've been looking to update my Dutch betting guide for a while, but holding back knowing there is a good reason, only not quite putting my finger on it till now.
Like all my bet or trade methods I'm aiming to streamline Dutching for a simpler selection process and to become more profitable. I want to end the year strong exceeding expectations.
You may have read previous blog posts about the Value Dutch being introduced soon, which addresses the profit per bet / average odds / risk vs reward conundrum.
This is a more dynamic exciting bet with higher odds which will enhance the current service, but The Value Dutch will not make the current Dutch bets more efficient, nor create more opportunity to get involved with them.
It will improve what we have with an additional profitable bet, but we don't just need another profitable bet, as I see it we need the current bets to increase productivity.
Also, when I look back at historical results from 2017 for Dutch 1 and 3 specifically, we had periods of abundant opportunities and growth, and in comparison so far in 2018 there is an obvious shortage of these bets, and we're missing the growth they provided.
The selection process hasn't changed, but the data which was the foundation for them has since I began, and this is accepted as part of the growth of the sport and industry. The first port of call to establish if the bets are doable is now quite different, which at first was much more subtle than it actually is now. The impact of this across the Dutch 1 & 3 bets is represented in the shortage of bets posted so far this year.
Does this mean the Dutch 1 & 3 bets are no longer viable, not at all, but it does mean that they need to adapt to the changes and move with the times.
Initially I thought it may be a transition from the data supplier, but it's apparent it's a permanent fixture, so I need to adjust my template to make it fit again.
Additionally, the current Dutch bets are split across different selection parameters, which as mentioned have been disrupted slightly, but when I look at the days racing I've combination of criteria to work through, and required to fit a specific column for each type of Dutch. This has become restrictive which is amplified by the limited supply.
So what is the future of Dutch betting?
The answer is, a new reinforced foundation to filter the opportunities, and one primary Dutch bet utilizing all the knowledge at my disposal for all bets. A single Dutch bet covering all present methods, with one percentage stake per bet.
The Value Dutch will run along side this as a stand alone, as it is very different, but the single Dutch bet will utilize the depth of information and selection criterion used to source the current Dutch bets. Both simplifying the process of following the strategy / easier for you, and opening more opportunities for myself when sourcing the bet. As already proven, using one bank for all bets is more profitable, but I will be revising the staking plan slightly, nothing drastic, just a common sense tidy up.
This will be introduced for quarter three, as I formulate the grounding for the switch over, and set up the appropriate information on the website.
The important point to note here is the bets are the same, just combined to remove the limitations, and worked from a correct start point. It may be a new way to achieve this, but it's built on the old way. I'm basing all this on everything I have so far, just making it a lot easier, and removing limitations I'd unwittingly set up for myself.
We live and learn as they say, and realizing ways we can improve is vital to continually keep moving forward. This means the guide will need a ground up re write, which will be easier to follow removing any ambiguity.
The Dutch bets will be merged in to one bet, with one staking plan, and one bank. Thus creating more opportunity to bet, with the goal more balance growth more achievable. Also, a lot quicker to update results, which has created unnecessary work, when I could be more productive.
I need to spend some time adjusting the initial template across the original data supplier as mentioned above, but I understand the changes, so this will just require some back dated number crunching. I'll keep you posted asap on this.
Finally for current members, I'll be sending an addendum as mentioned in a recent Dutch email, which will cover some options for closing out a bet using our betting process should the parameters that created the selection change after its been placed. Along with some alternate options for placing the bets should Betfair let us down as they did of late.
I'd expect to have this with you mid June, and it will be included in the next guide update which will be timed along side the details outlined above.
Thanks for reading, any questions please send me an email to ryan@exponentialbet.co.uk and I'll get back to you asap.